Pubs could stay closed until May under new three-stage lockdown easing plan

New plans to ease the national lockdown in England could see pubs and restaurants closed until May, according to the latest reports.

Under the proposals, non-essential retail would also have to stay shut until April, while schools would reopen in March.

The Prime Minister has said he will officially announce his roadmap out of lockdown during the week of February 22nd, as he revealed yesterday that he hoped to open schools on March 8th.

According to reports in the Telegraph, the roadmap will consist of a three-stage plan, which would see shops opening in April and pubs and restaurants in May – this will depend on infection rates, hospitalisations and deaths, however.

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A Whitehall source told the Telegraph: “If schools do open in March, and the priority is certainly to open schools first, then it will mean other things have to remain closed for some time.

“We have to avoid the situation last time where the return of schools meant far greater household mixing across the board.

“So that means we’d be likely to wait at least another month for non-essential retail, and a month beyond that at least for pubs and restaurants.”

To exit the first lockdown, the government also used a three-stage plan to ease restrictions.

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Some experts have already said that pubs will likely need to stay shut until May, including Dr Marc Baguelin who sits on the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of SAGE.

He said that if we open hospitality prematurely it would cause a ‘bump’ in Covid cases.

Dr Baguelin told BBC Radio 4’s World at One: “We looked at the partial reopening and the increase in the R number – it will generate an increase in the R number – the extent of which we don’t know really.

“Something of this scale, if it was to happen earlier than May, would generate a bump in transmission, which is already really bad.

“So you have a lot of pressure on hospitals, you will have another wave of some extent. At best you will keep on having very, very unsustainable level of pressure on the NHS.”

Modelling indicates that if the government gradually eases restrictions it is far less risky, and it would mean rules could be relaxed without overwhelming the NHS.